Characteristics and Risk of Microgrid Outages from a Complex Systems Point of View

Abstract

Cordova is a town of approximately 2,000 people located on the southern coast of Alaska. A power grid for a town this size, with a large seasonal fishing economy, is considered a moderate to large sized microgrid in terms of power produced. Understanding the vulnerabilities and risks of failures in such a grid is important for planning and operations. Investigating these characteristics in the context of complex system dynamics is a novel approach. The analysis of Cordova’s microgrid is a case study relevant to a large class of microgrid communities. We analyze the outage data based on size, cause characteristics and load demand on the system and find long time correlations and power laws in the failure size distributions. Finally we apply a risk metric to give a single numerical value to the risk of an outage occurring during certain time periods and under certain conditions.