Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10125/63953

Determining Project Contingency Reserve Using a Fuzzy Arithmetic-Based Risk Analysis Method

File Size Format  
0173.pdf 873.92 kB Adobe PDF View/Open

Item Summary

dc.contributor.author Fateminia, Seyed Hamed
dc.contributor.author Siraj, Nasir Bedewi
dc.contributor.author Fayek, Aminah Robinson
dc.contributor.author Johnston, Andrew
dc.date.accessioned 2020-01-04T07:30:29Z
dc.date.available 2020-01-04T07:30:29Z
dc.date.issued 2020-01-07
dc.identifier.isbn 978-0-9981331-3-3
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10125/63953
dc.description.abstract Traditional techniques for estimating contingency reserve fail to capture subjective uncertainties and expert knowledge, and they rely on historical data. This paper proposes a fuzzy risk analysis model (FRAM) that uses fuzzy arithmetic to analyze risk and opportunity events and determine construction project contingency reserve. The FRAM allows experts to use natural language to assess the probability and impact of risk and opportunity events by employing linguistic scales represented by fuzzy numbers, thus addressing the data reliance problem of probabilistic methods. It enables experts to customize linguistic scales and fuzzy numbers for different project types and stages. The FRAM also deals with the challenges associated with deterministic approaches by addressing measurement imprecision and the subjective uncertainty of experts’ opinions. Moreover, the FRAM allows analysts to estimate contingency at different levels of confidence. This paper also illustrates Fuzzy Risk Analyzer© (FRA©), software that implements the fuzzy arithmetic procedure of the FRAM.
dc.format.extent 10 pages
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Proceedings of the 53rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
dc.rights Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject Soft Computing: Theory Innovations and Problem Solving Benefits
dc.subject contingency
dc.subject fra
dc.subject fram
dc.subject fuzzy logic
dc.subject quantitative risk analysis
dc.subject risk management
dc.title Determining Project Contingency Reserve Using a Fuzzy Arithmetic-Based Risk Analysis Method
dc.type Conference Paper
dc.type.dcmi Text
dc.identifier.doi 10.24251/HICSS.2020.214
Appears in Collections: Soft Computing: Theory Innovations and Problem Solving Benefits


Please email libraryada-l@lists.hawaii.edu if you need this content in ADA-compliant format.

This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License Creative Commons