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FORECASTING CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN HAWAIʻI THROUGH INTEGRATION OF HYDROLOGICAL AND PARTICIPATORY MODELS

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dc.contributor.advisor Oleson, Kirsten L.L.
dc.contributor.author Htun, Hla
dc.date.accessioned 2019-05-28T19:18:29Z
dc.date.issued 2018-12
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10125/62048
dc.subject Water resources management
dc.subject Hydrologic sciences
dc.subject Natural resource management
dc.subject Freshwater Ecosystem Services
dc.subject Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping
dc.subject Hawaii
dc.subject Hydrological Modeling
dc.subject Volcanic Islands
dc.subject Water Resources Management
dc.title FORECASTING CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN HAWAIʻI THROUGH INTEGRATION OF HYDROLOGICAL AND PARTICIPATORY MODELS
dc.type Thesis
dc.contributor.department Natural Resources and Environmental Management
dc.embargo.liftdate 2020-02-11
local.identifier.alturi http://dissertations.umi.com/hawii:10094
dcterms.abstract Water is critical for supporting life, and fundamental for provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services that support human wellbeing. However, freshwater resources are projected to become scarcer in Hawaiʻi due to a growing human population, a changing climate, and altered land use and land cover. Therefore, to meet future needs, society needs to manage water more effectively using an interdisciplinary ecosystem services-based approach that accounts for physical, social, and ecological interactions. In order to support holistic management of freshwater ecosystem services in Hawaiʻi, I developed a modeling tool that can integrate physical and ecological processes and social systems. First, I identified appropriate hydrological models to estimate the hydrologic attributes (quantity, quality, location, and timing) that underpin delivery of multiple freshwater ecosystem services. Due to Hawaiʻi’s unique hydrogeological conditions, many standard models cannot accurately quantify hydrologic processes, and thus cannot estimate hydrologic attributes or evaluate ecosystem services. I identified a suite of potential models, developed a set of criteria that I used to select candidate models for estimating freshwater ecosystem services in Hawaiʻi, and evaluated performance for the most promising models. In addition, I created a decision tree for model selection that decision-makers and researchers interested in modeling freshwater ecosystem services can use. Second, I coupled a hydrological model (AnnAGNPS) with a participatory model (using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping) in a wetland ecosystem on Kauaʻi to translate hydrological model outputs into ecological benefits for three wetland birds: Hawaiian Stilt or Ae‘o (Himantopus mexicanus knudseni), Hawaiian Coot or ‘Alae ke‘oke‘o (Fulica alai), and Hawaiian Moorhen or ‘Alae ‘Ula (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis). Model coupling suggested that a decline in precipitation would reduce abundance of all three bird species. Results suggest that managers should focus on water depth, food availability, and disease in order to manage abundance. Finally, I used the coupled hydrological-participatory model approach to predict the management and policy outcomes of environmental scenarios for different stakeholder groups who hold diverse values for freshwater ecosystem services. Results revealed stakeholders’ agreement on key environmental stressors, as well as their differing views on restoring streamflow, which largely corresponded to their values for ecosystem services (agricultural production versus conservation). This study identified and used models in a coupled framework to simulate environmental changes, and inform enhanced management of freshwater ecosystem services in Hawaiʻi. The resulting decision support framework is easily adaptable for different ecosystems and islands.
dcterms.description Ph.D. Thesis. University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa 2018.
dcterms.extent 195 pages
dcterms.language eng
dcterms.publisher University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
dcterms.rights All UHM dissertations and theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission from the copyright owner.
dcterms.type Text
Appears in Collections: Ph.D. - Natural Resources and Environmental Management


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