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"Deliberated Intuition for Groups": An Explanatory Model for Crowd Predictions in the Domain of Stock-Price Forecasting

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Title: "Deliberated Intuition for Groups": An Explanatory Model for Crowd Predictions in the Domain of Stock-Price Forecasting
Authors: Endress, Tobias
Gear, Tony
Keywords: Crowd Science
crowdsouring, decision-making, forecasting, intuition, stock prices
Issue Date: 03 Jan 2018
Abstract: Crowd predictions in the domain of stock-price forecasting is a fascinating concept. Several special-interest online communities were founded following this idea. However, there is a limited body of literature about the domain of stock-price predictions based on such a crowdsourced approach. This paper presents an empirical study in the form of a two-phase, sequential mixed-methods experiment. Data from purposefully designed groups, consisting of lay people and professional financial analysts, were examined to inform the understanding of the prediction process. The findings led to an explanatory model, which we introduce as -˜deliberated intuition for groups’. The model of deliberated intuition for groups, which is proposed here, views prediction as a process of practice which will be different for each individual and group. The model proposes that a predictor will decide, consciously or semi-consciously, either to rely on gut-feeling or to undertake more analysis.
Pages/Duration: 8 pages
URI/DOI: http://hdl.handle.net/10125/50403
ISBN: 978-0-9981331-1-9
DOI: 10.24251/HICSS.2018.514
Rights: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Appears in Collections:Crowd Science


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