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Title: WRRCSR No.1:05:93 Long-Range Prediction of Hawaii Winter Rainfall: A Canonical Correlation Analysis 
Author: Chu, Pao-Shin; He, Yuxiang
Date: 1993-01
Publisher: Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii
Citation: Chu PS, He Y. 1993. Long-range prediction of Hawaii winter rainfall: A canonical correlation analysis. Honolulu (HI): Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii. WRRC special report, 1:05:93.
Abstract: Hawaii rainfall is teleconnected to short-term climate variability in the Pacific Ocean. The summer Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and summer sea-level pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific are used as predictors, and winter rainfall indices from three islands of Hawaii as predictands. To consolidate the large data array of the SLP field prior to prediction experiments, lagged correlation and empirical
orthogonal function analyses are used. Canonical correlation analysis has been used for predicting Hawaii winter rainfall. Among many schemes tested, the one that includes the summer SOI and the first four eigenmodes from summer SLP as predictors yields the best predictions. The cross validation
technique has also been used to estimate the overall forecast skill of various schemes and the results are consistent with those from prediction experiments. Winter rainfall in Hawaii can be predicted with a good
degree of success two seasons in advance by using the summer SOI and the first four eigenmodes of summer SLP over the North Pacific as predictors.
Series/Report No.: WRRC Special Reports
Sponsorship: U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey; Department of Land and Natural Resources, Commission on Water Resource Management; City and County of Honolulu, Board of Water Supply Grant/Contract No. G1558 (USGS); 29185 (DLNR)
Pages/Duration: viii + 17 pages
Keywords: rainfall, correlation analysis, prediction, forecasting, Monte Carlo method, long-range prediction, winter rainfall, canonical correlation analysis, Southern Oscillation Index, sea-level pressure, Kauai, Oahu, Hawaii
LC Subject Headings: Precipitation forecasting -- Hawaii -- Mathematical models.
Rain and rainfall -- Hawaii.
Rainfall probabilities -- Hawaii -- Mathematical models.

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