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WRRCSR No.1:05:93 Long-Range Prediction of Hawaii Winter Rainfall: A Canonical Correlation Analysis

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Title: WRRCSR No.1:05:93 Long-Range Prediction of Hawaii Winter Rainfall: A Canonical Correlation Analysis
Authors: Chu, Pao-Shin
He, Yuxiang
Keywords: rainfall
correlation analysis
Monte Carlo method
show 8 morelong-range prediction
winter rainfall
canonical correlation analysis
Southern Oscillation Index
sea-level pressure

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LC Subject Headings: Precipitation forecasting -- Hawaii -- Mathematical models.
Rain and rainfall -- Hawaii.
Rainfall probabilities -- Hawaii -- Mathematical models.
Issue Date: Jan 1993
Publisher: Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii
Citation: Chu PS, He Y. 1993. Long-range prediction of Hawaii winter rainfall: A canonical correlation analysis. Honolulu (HI): Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii. WRRC special report, 1:05:93.
Series/Report no.: WRRC Special Reports
Abstract: Hawaii rainfall is teleconnected to short-term climate variability in the Pacific Ocean. The summer Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and summer sea-level pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific are used as predictors, and winter rainfall indices from three islands of Hawaii as predictands. To consolidate the large data array of the SLP field prior to prediction experiments, lagged correlation and empirical
orthogonal function analyses are used. Canonical correlation analysis has been used for predicting Hawaii winter rainfall. Among many schemes tested, the one that includes the summer SOI and the first four eigenmodes from summer SLP as predictors yields the best predictions. The cross validation
technique has also been used to estimate the overall forecast skill of various schemes and the results are consistent with those from prediction experiments. Winter rainfall in Hawaii can be predicted with a good
degree of success two seasons in advance by using the summer SOI and the first four eigenmodes of summer SLP over the North Pacific as predictors.
Sponsor: U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey; Department of Land and Natural Resources, Commission on Water Resource Management; City and County of Honolulu, Board of Water Supply Grant/Contract No. G1558 (USGS); 29185 (DLNR)
Pages/Duration: viii + 17 pages
Appears in Collections:WRRC Special Reports

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