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Probabilistic Forecasting and Simulation of Electricity Markets via Online Dictionary Learning

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Title: Probabilistic Forecasting and Simulation of Electricity Markets via Online Dictionary Learning
Authors: Deng, Weisi
Ji, Yuting
Tong, Lang
Keywords: Dictionary learning
electricity market
machine learning in power systems
power flow distributions
probabilistic price forecasting.
Issue Date: 04 Jan 2017
Abstract: The problem of probabilistic forecasting and online simulation of real-time electricity market with stochastic generation and demand is considered. By exploiting the parametric structure of the direct current optimal power flow, a new technique based on online dictionary learning (ODL) is proposed. The ODL approach incorporates real-time measurements and historical traces to produce forecasts of joint and marginal probability distributions of future locational marginal prices, power flows, and dispatch levels, conditional on the system state at the time of forecasting. Compared with standard Monte Carlo simulation techniques, the ODL approach offers several orders of magnitude improvement in computation time, making it feasible for online forecasting of market operations. Numerical simulations on large and moderate size power systems illustrate its performance and complexity features and its potential as a tool for system operators.
Pages/Duration: 7 pages
ISBN: 978-0-9981331-0-2
DOI: 10.24251/HICSS.2017.377
Rights: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Appears in Collections:Markets, Policy, and Computation Minitrack

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