Population and Health [Working Papers]
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ItemMultivariate life table methodology for estimating the effect of child mortality on the total fertility rate and its components(Honolulu, HI: East-West Center, 2011-02)This paper develops, validates, and applies new multivariate methodology to assess the effect of child mortality on both period and cohort measures of fertility. The methodology, which can be applied to period data as well as cohort data, is based on discrete-time survival models of parity progression that enable construction of a multivariate life table of fertility covering all parity transitions. The five dimensions of this life table are woman's age, parity, duration in parity, and two dimensions representing lagged child mortality (number of dead children at the beginning and end of the previous year when the woman was one year younger). Additional socioeconomic predictor variables are also included in the underlying survival models. The life table is multivariate in the sense that it can be specified for values or categories of one socioeconomic predictor variable while holding other socioeconomic predictors constant. The life table yields a number of measures of both the quantum and the tempo of fertility and child mortality. It also yields a replacement rate, which measures the extent to which child deaths are replaced by additional births. Because the life table is multivariate, all measures calculated from it are also multivariate. By way of illustration, the methodology is applied to three Indian National Family Health Surveys conducted in 1992-93 (NFHS-1), 1998-99 (NFHS-2), and 2005-06 (NFHS-3). Major findings are that dead children are incompletely replaced, and that the replacement rate rises as the total fertility rate falls over the three surveys, reflecting women's increasing ability to achieve their wanted number of surviving children.
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ItemFurther development of methodology for multivariate analysis of the total fertility rate and its components based on birth-history data(Honolulu, HI: East-West Center, 2010-11)A discrete-time survival model (the complementary log-log model) is used to model parity progression from woman's own birth to first marriage, from first marriage to first birth, from first birth to second birth, and so on, with one model for each parity transition. Predictor variables in each model include woman's age and duration in parity as well as socioeconomic characteristics. The models are applied to birth history data. Collectively the models yield estimates of marriage and birth probabilities by age, parity, and duration in parity, denoted Pait, by socioeconomic characteristics. The probabilities Pait are multivariate in the sense that they can be tabulated by one socioeconomic characteristic while holding other socioeconomic characteristics constant. The probabilities Pait allow construction of a life table that follows women by age, parity, and duration in parity from age 10 to age 50 one year at a time. This life table is referred to as a "global life table," because it spans all ages, parities, and durations in parity within the reproductive age span. Because the Pait are multivariate, the global life table is also multivariate, as are all measures derived from it. The derived measures considered here include both period and cohort estimates of parity progression ratios (PPRs), age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs), mean and median ages at first marriage, mean and median closed birth intervals, mean and median ages at childbearing (both overall and by child's birth order), total fertility rate (TFR), and total marital fertility rate (TMFR). The methodology is tested on data from the 2003 Demographic and Health Survey of the Philippines.
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ItemPopulation aging and economic progress : a bumpy road ahead?(Honolulu, HI: East-West Center, 2010-06)Over the next forty years, the most important demographic trend in Asia and the Pacific will be population aging. This has primarily been an industrialized country phenomenon to this point, but by 2050 many other countries in the region will have aged dramatically. Rapid increase in elderly populations may bring two important goals of countries in the region into sharp conflict. The first is to develop socioeconomic systems that will provide economic security to a growing number of elderly people. The second is to sustain strong economic growth over the next forty years. The ultimate economic success of these two goals will rely on policies yet to be implemented, and the most important ones will be policies that encourage savings, investment in human capital, and well-functioning financial and labor markets.
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ItemMultivariate analysis of parity progression-based measures of the total fertility rate and its components using individual-level data(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2010-01)This paper develops multivariate methods for analyzing (1) effects of socioeconomic variables on the total fertility rate and its components and (2) effects of socioeconomic variables on the trend in the total fertility rate and its components. For the multivariate methods to be applicable, the total fertility rate must be calculated from parity progression ratios (PPRs), pertaining here to transitions from birth to first marriage, first marriage to first birth, first birth to second birth, and so on. The components of the TFR include PPRs, the total marital fertility rate (TMFR), and the TFR itself as measures of the quantum of fertility, and mean and median ages at first marriage and mean and median closed birth intervals by birth order as measures of the tempo or timing of fertility. The multivariate methods are applicable to both period measures and cohort measures of these quantities. The methods are illustrated by application to data from the 1993, 1998, and 2003 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in the Philippines.
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ItemPopulation policy, economic reform, and fertility decline in Guangdong province, China(Honolulu, HI: East-West Center, 2009-05)This paper examines Guangdong's fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 and analyzes how it has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic development. Guangdong's economic development has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The effect of this migration on Guangdong's fertility is an important part of the story. Measures of fertility and nuptiality employed in the analysis include the total fertility rate, parity progression ratios, mean age at first marriage, mean age at first birth, and mean closed birth interval between first and second birth. These measures are calculated from birth histories reconstructed from data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census. An overlapping-trend analysis provides indications of the accuracy of the estimates.