Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition

File Size Format  
FertEd16.pdf 174.83 kB Adobe PDF View/Open

Item Summary

Title:Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition
Authors:Lee, Ronald Demos
Mason, Andrew
Keywords:Demographic transition
Fertility, Human - Economic aspects
Human capital
Population aging - Economic aspects
Date Issued:16 Jun 2008
Citation:Lee, Ronald and Andrew Mason. 2008. Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, L.A., April 17-19, 2008.
Abstract:Over the demographic transition, declining fertility leads to rising support ratios and consumption during the first divided phase, followed by falling support ratios as population ages. Might human capital investments rise sufficiently as fertility falls to preserve the initial gains? Using a new cross-national data set, we estimate that a constant share of life time labor income is invested in human capital, so that the proportion invested per child is inversely proportional to the number of children. We draw from the literature an estimated elasticity of labor productivity with respect to human capital. Combining these, we simulate the effect of fertility variations over an exogenous demographic transition, including varying child and old age dependency, on consumption. In the baseline simulation, the increased human capital investments due to lower fertility initially reduce consumption as fertility falls but subsequently raise consumption despite population aging and increased transfers to the elderly.
Description:Also to be presented at the World Demographic Association Conference on the Economic Effects of Low Fertility, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, 11-12 April 2008.
Pages/Duration:24 pages
Appears in Collections: Mason, Andrew

Please email if you need this content in ADA-compliant format.

Items in ScholarSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.