Dynamic patterns of international conflict

Phillips, Warren Randall
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The study to be reported upon here has three goals: first, to find the dimensions of variation among nations with respect to their dyadic conflict behavior over a continuous series of months and to compare these month-to-month dimensions with dimensions derived through employing an annual time frame; secondly, to ascertain the groups of nation dyads that exhibit similar patterns of conflict behavior over time; and thirdly, to discuss the profiles of dyadic conflict behavior for each of the groups delineated in the analysis. Data have been collected on several measures of foreign conflict behavior over 267 dyads for 1963. These data were reorganized into 12 month periods, intercorre1ated, and factor analyzed. The factors derived from this analysis were then compared with those derived from the 1963 study of Hall and Rummel (1968). Factor scores for each dyad were then calculated to determine the dyad's position along the foreign conflict dimensions. These scores were employed in the calculation of distances for grouping by direct factor analysis. Profile delineation was computed using the factor scores for each of the groups derived in the analysis. Five conflict dimensions were delineated in this over time analysis. The factor patterns were found identical to the cross sectional patterns found in earlier work (Hall and Rummel, 1968). Seven groups of similarly behaving dyads were delineated. Groups corresponding to Cold War conflict, routine military activity, crisis behavior, and third world discontent with major powers were delineated in profile analysis. Investigation of the stability of patterns for one month periods suggests that the structure appears stable. Control for random and systematic error failed to signify contamination of results by variance due to error.
Bibliography: leaves [127]-134.
x, 134 l illus., tables
International relations -- Research, Political science -- Mathematical models
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