Arun Swamy: TERRORISM COALITION CAUGHT IN KASHMIR CROSSFIRE
Date: 10-01-2001
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TERRORISM COALITION CAUGHT IN KASHMIR CROSSFIRE
HONOLULU (Oct. 1) -- A suicide bombing in Kashmir has left the U.S. coalition to fight terrorism "hopelessly entangled" in South Asian rivalries and complicated the U.S. balancing act between India and Pakistan, an East-West Center specialist on South Asia said.
India today called on the United States to take action against Pakistani support for militancy in Kashmir. The notice followed Monday's attack on the legislative assembly of Indian-held Kashmir that killed 38 people, and was delivered by India's Foreign Minister, Jaswant Singh, in personal meetings with President Bush and other Cabinet members.
"Over the last few hours, U.S. efforts to maintain a coalition against Osama Bin Laden and the Taliban became hopelessly entangled in the continuing rivalry between India and Pakistan over the state of Jammu and Kashmir," said Arun. R. Swamy. "The Indian stance and Secretary of State Colin Powell's response complicate the administration's already difficult balancing act between Indian and Pakistani concerns."
In a letter to the White House, India's Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee warned that India would be forced to address the issue of Pakistani support for militancy in Kashmir if the United States did not do so. Vajpayee acknowledged that Bush's first responsibility was to the security of the American people, but pointedly stated that as India's elected leader, Vajpayee, too, had to take actions in defense of the Indian people's vital interests.
Powell announced the attack on the Kashmir legislative assembly was clearly an act of terrorism and that terrorism in Kashmir was also on the U.S. agenda, although he left open the question of which Kashmiri militant groups would be considered terrorist. A Pakistan-based Islamist group, the Jaish-e-Mohammed, initially claimed credit for the suicide bombing.
Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, "the U.S. has mainly focused on meeting the concerns of Pakistan, which borders on Afghanistan and has powerful Islamist movement that could destabilize the country," Swamy said. "India's calls for targeting Pakistan-based militant groups active in Kashmir were of a lower priority, especially since the U.S. position is that at least some of the Kashmiri militancy is a home-grown separatist movement."
Pakistan's military government, already facing rising opposition from Islamist groups for its support for the United States, is unlikely to risk further domestic conflict by cracking down on Islamist groups acting in Kashmir without some Indian concessions there. As it would be impossible for any Indian government to make such concessions now, or for either party to carry out negotiations in the present crisis, the only way out for U.S. policymakers is convincing Pakistan to prevent further attacks in Kashmir from being carried out from Pakistani soil in the immediate future, Swamy said.
The Kashmir bombing also creates the possibility, though not necessarily imminent, that India will retaliate against Pakistan directly, Swamy said. "While an attack on Pakistan proper is almost inconceivable, since both countries possess nuclear weapons, military action against militant bases in Pakistan-held Kashmir might not be."
It is unlikely that India would take such a high-risk action while the United States was courting Pakistan, Swamy said. However, he noted that India's intervention in Pakistan's 1971 civil war came at a time when Pakistan was closely allied to the United States, after the United States failed to respond to Indian requests for diplomatic intervention. This is a precedent that surely worries Washington.
Arun R. Swamy can be reached at 808-944-7542 or
swamya@EastWestCenter.org