Arun Swamy: INDIAN GOVERNMENT'S HANDLING OF RIOTS COULD LEAD TO INSTABILITY

Date: 03-12-2002

The East-West Wire is a news service provided by the East-West Center in Honolulu. For more information, contact Susan Kreifels at 808-944-7176 or EastWestWire@EastWestCenter.org. INDIAN GOVERNMENT'S HANDLING OF RIOTS COULD LEAD TO INSTABILITY

HONOLULU (March 12) -- The Indian government's response to anti-Muslim riots in the state of Gujarat threatens its own survival as well as the country's long-term stability, an East-West Center specialist on South Asia said.

It is becoming clear that the riots were not spontaneous expressions of religious fervor but rather well-organized attacks on Muslim homes and businesses, said Arun Swamy. Public records including voter and business registration lists appear to have been used to target Muslims. The attacks may have been actively coordinated by local units of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which heads both the national government and the Gujarat state government, along with members of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), a militant Hindu Organization.

Swamy pointed out that both the national and state governments were accused of responding slowly to the crisis. The national government has rejected opposition calls to dismiss the Gujarat state government -- the only large state where the BJP is in power -- and ban the VHP, despite having banned some militant Islamic organizations.

Worse, he said, both the national and state governments initially paid more attention to an attack on a train carrying VHP volunteers to a disputed religious site. The government charges that the attack was instigated by Pakistani agents aimed at destabilizing India.

A mosque on the disputed site was torn down by a Hindu mob in 1992. Although the BJP and VHP claim a Hindu temple was on the site until the 16h century, the BJP came to power with the support of many smaller parties only after promising not to allow a new temple to be built there without supreme court approval. But the VHP has forced the issue by sending volunteers to build the temple, resulting in the Gujarat riots. The national government has sought a compromise solution.

These actions leave the BJP's allies in a difficult position, Swamy said. "Some have suggested that they would withdraw support from the government if the temple is built. However, the opposition congress party's recent successes in state elections make the BJP's allies reluctant to destabilize the government."

The short-term political calculations of the various parties in the ruling coalition conflict with what is needed to ensure India's long-term stability. "Unless the allies withdraw support from the government or the government cracks down on Hindu militants, India's 100 million Muslims are unlikely to feel secure in their own country," Swamy said. "The most likely scenario is a compromise on temple construction that satisfies no one."

Arun Swamy can be reached at 808-944-7542 or swamya@eastwestcenter.org

This is an East-West Wire, copyright East-West Center