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HONOLULU (July 5) – Fireworks were not limited to the United States this July 4th. North Korea touched off a few of its own with a series of missile launches, including the much-anticipated long-range Taepodong-2. The multi-stage intercontinental ballistic missile blew apart less than one minute into its flight, but reports are that Pyongyang may be readying for another launch.
The Taepodong-2 has caused concern internationally. The estimate of the missile's range would put the United States within reach as well as change the military and security dynamic of the Northeast Asia region.
The fact that the first Taepodong-2 blew apart does not necessarily make Pyongyang’s fireworks show a failure.
“I think there’s an attempt to get attention and push the U.S. into negotiating with them directly,” says East-West Center (EWC) fellow and northeast Asia security expert Sheila Smith. “Brinkmanship has long been a hallmark of North Korea’s behavior. The North has a history of doing provocative things to improve its position at the bargaining table and obtaining concessions from the rest of the world.”
North Korea certainly got the attention of the United States, but direct negotiations are another matter.
Smith says, “North Korea has long demanded direct negotiations with the United States and to normalize relations … to drive a wedge between Washington and its allies in the region. The U.S. has steadfastly held to a multi-lateral approach and I see no change in that stance.”
The issue is headed to the United Nations Security Council and the U.S. is talking with four of its partners in the Six Party Talks, a diplomatic forum aimed at getting North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons program. Pyongyang is the sixth member.
Smith notes that, “U.S. Ambassador Christopher Hill was dispatched to the region to confer with Washington’s Six Party Talk partners (Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, and Moscow) to see if a united front is possible.”
But, in the region, the failure of the first Taepodong-2 was overshadowed by the successful launches of the Rodong missiles, a North Korean made version of the Scud missile.
“The Rodong missile is important,” Smith says. “North Korea has shown again that Japan and South Korea, even China and Russia are within its range. It is a potential threat to those countries.”
Tokyo is well aware of that fact. The Japanese government warned Pyongyang prior to the launches there would be retaliatory actions, including an appeal to the U.N. Security Council, if the missiles flew. As they were leaving their launch pads, the government of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was meeting in emergency session. Tokyo quickly leveled economic sanctions against the North, including a half-year port ban on the North Korean ferryboat Mangyongbong-92 that makes runs between North Korea and Japan’s western port of Niigata. The move may seem somewhat insignificant, but the sea service is one of the few regular economic links the isolated North has with the outside.
The last time North Korea tested a long-range missile, the Taepoedong-1 in 1998, the reaction in Japan was swift and changed critical thinking in the island nation.
“It had a lasting impact on Japan’s security policy planners,” according to Smith. “More importantly, it yielded a considerable sea change in public attitudes regarding Japan’s security environment and Japan’s own defense preparedness.”
The latest launches have done nothing to change that perception.
“Pyongyang’s actions over the past day or so will only harden the positions of the countries around North Korea,” according to Smith, “especially in Tokyo.”
In the Japanese capital, according to press reports, Defense Agency chief Fukushiro Nukaga said, “North Korea, which is said to possess nuclear weapons, is extending the range of its ballistic missiles and improving their capabilities. We consider it a grave problem not only for the safety of our country, but for the stability of the region.”
“Japanese and U.S. forces are deployed and monitoring the situation,” Smith adds, “but of course the real solution must be a diplomatic one.”
Two of Pyongyang’s closest neighbors would probably agree with Smith’s statement. The reaction of both Beijing and Seoul will be worth watching.
China has been working quietly to get the North Koreans to temper their rhetoric and actions. Last week China’s premier Wen Jiabao told Pyongyang it should refrain from aggravating regional tensions by going ahead with the missile launches. With the launches, China has been put in a position in which its influence with the North might be in question.
South Korea is also a very interested party.
“Seoul can be expected to take a low-keyed approach, at least publicly,” according to Smith. “Since 2000 South Korea has opted for a policy of political engagement with the North, its so-called Sunshine Policy, and believes that is the best path toward a peaceful transformation on the Korean peninsula.”
Smith also notes, “The last thing either China or South Korea want is instability on the (Korean) peninsula. The specter of hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming across their borders with North Korea is something they do not want to deal with.”
Now that Pyongyang has the attention of Washington, and other world capitals, what should be done?
Smith echoes the thought of many analysts.
“Negotiating with Pyongyang now would send the wrong message, that this type of behavior was being rewarded. But, in the longer term, intensified multi-lateral negotiations will have to take place. And, those will have to focus on the real threat posed by the North, its nuclear program, not its missiles.”
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Sheila Smith can be reached at (808) 944-7427 or at smiths@eastwestcenter.org
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