Nepal Prospects Hinge on Maoists' Transition From Rebels to Rulers

HONOLULU (June 11) -- The remarkable election victory of Maoist rebels in Nepal could lead to a period of short-term political instability, a leading international expert in democratic governance says, but if the new government is given time – and a fair dose of "Democracy dividends" – the long-term prospects for that remote Himalayan nation are quite positive.

The key, according to G. Shabbir Cheema, former director of the United Nation's Global Forum for Reinventing Government and today a senior researcher at the East-West Center, will be a willingness of the newly elected rebels to understand that their success depends on transforming from a revolutionary party to a governance party.

It will also require patience by the international community so that the rebels have time to understand and complete that transformation, Cheema said.

None of this will be easy, and the likely prospect is for at least a few years of political and social turmoil, he said. But over time, and with the proper kind of outside assistance, Nepal has a decent chance of becoming a successful and stable democratic presence in the region.

Cheema said he has been heartened by the relatively calm reaction by the United States, both diplomatically and politically, to the surprising electoral success of the Maoists.

"Democratic elections in developing countries do not always produce results that we as Americans like," he observed.

He cited the reaction to the electoral success of Hamas in Palestine and the political rise of a secular government in Pakistan that is willing to talk with and make accommodations to Islamic extremist groups within that country. Both cases produced election results that seem to run against immediate American interests in fighting terrorism.

But dialogue and cooperation with elected people's representatives will be more effective in the long term to achieve the American goal of democracy and good governance, he said.

The same could hold true for Nepal.

A good example, Cheema said, can be found in the Communist Party of neighboring China, which has radically transformed itself from a party of revolution to a party of effective governance, concerned with prosperity, stability and an effective civil society. But he noted that the process of transformation was not easy, nor was it swift.

That suggests that, for the moment, Nepal is in for a rocky period.

"The odds are against the political process succeeding right away," he said. While the Maoists emerged with the largest single block of votes, they must still operate in a coalition political environment. No group has a majority. In addition, the Maoists will have to shake off a culture that uses "violence and fear" to achieve its objectives, he said.

At the same time, the new government will also have to deal with the daunting food and fuel shortages and price inflation facing Nepal.

Finally, there is the "nightmare" task of melding the revolutionary cadres into the existing army, which was long loyal to the ousted King Gyanendra.

"It will be a tough uphill fight," Cheema said. "The new structure is being created in a time of tremendous uncertainty. I'm not optimistic for the near future."

Faced with turmoil, some may see a need for the international community to step in or intervene in some way, Cheema said. But the former UN official argued his experience suggests that would be the wrong approach.

"In the long term, we must allow the political process to continue. Let there be failure," he said.

"There might be instability. The economy might go down. But having a one-man rule is just not in the interests of the people."

Going forward, several scenarios are possible for Nepal, Cheema said.

The "most pessimistic" is that the country simply falls apart and the military takes over again, or the communists go back to violence and fear in an effort to bring matters under control.

A more optimistic view is that the communists will put together a pragmatic coalition with other political parties, with the understanding that the best route to the prosperity of Nepal and of their own political fortunes is through cooperation.

"It may come to them that times have changed," he said.

"Experience teaches us this can be very difficult, but it can happen."

What is critical, Cheema said, is that the international community allows the Nepalese to work this out for themselves. International assistance is warranted – and badly needed – he said, but not outside political intervention.

"We need to provide democracy dividends to Nepal," he said. "Just like with Pakistan, it makes sense in the long term to support the present government. We need to help them along so this will stick."

Happily, he said, domestic conditions in the U.S. and international power politics are ripe for a generally hands-off approach to Nepal.

In the United States, the "ideological rhetoric" about the dangers of communism has paled and no longer drives domestic politics. Terrorism is a political factor, Cheema acknowledged. But somewhat surprisingly, the current administration appears ready to look past the fact that the newly successful Maoists have been on many terrorism lists.

One example: A quiet but clearly appreciated visit by a senior U.S. State Department official with the newly elected Maoists.

On the international scene, the two bordering major powers, China and India, are getting along relatively well right now and appear to have little interest in competing directly for power or influence within Nepal. "There is no superpower rivalry there that can destabilize the situation," Cheema said.

That's important, he added, because it gives Nepal time to adjust to its new circumstances in its own way.

"When external actors are pulling in different directions, it makes it more difficult for the local actors to cooperate," he noted.

At the same time, despite a decade of violent clashes between the Maoist rebels and the government, the framework for a stable civil society remains in place, Cheema said. Nepal has an emerging generation of capable technocrats who can help form and run a government.

"They have an active civil society," he said. "The capacity is there.

"But now, reconciliation by the political elites is the issue."

G. Shabbir Cheema is a Senior Fellow and Coordinator of Asia-Pacific Governance and Democracy Initiatives at the East West Center. He can be reached at cheemas@eastwestcenter.org

 
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