Mark Valencia: U.S.-CHINA JURISDICTIONAL DISPUTES COULD CAUSE MORE INCIDENTS

Date: 04-16-2001

HONOLULU -- The United States does not recognize several of China's jurisdictional claims in the South China Sea and insists on absolute freedom of navigation. At the same time, China opposes U.S. plans for theater missile defense, which the U.S. military says will require sea-based anti-ballistic missiles, and China is modernizing its navy.

These converging trends, said an East-West Center expert on maritime policy and international relations, could produce more incidents in the South China Sea like the recent collision of the U.S. surveillance plane and Chinese fighter jet. Thus, it is extremely important for the two countries to discuss their differences at their Wednesday meeting.

The United States will not recognize what it considers China's "extreme" jurisdictional claims in the South China Sea, and U.S. military ships or aircraft may test these claims under the Navy's Freedom of Navigation program, said East-West Center researcher Mark Valencia. China has claimed boundaries enclosing the waters around the Paracel Islands, near the area of the collision. Furthermore, Beijing has declared that foreign military craft cannot enter within 12 nautical miles of these borders without permission.

Increasing tensions even more, Valencia said, is a recent Department of Defense report concluding that a sea-based component would be critical to the theater missile defense that the Bush administration is pushing. Missiles launched from surface ships and submarines could destroy enemy missiles and their warheads shortly after liftoff before they release decoys. Such vessels would need to be close to the coastline of the country launching the missiles. This may be why the U.S. Navy is increasingly concerned about freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

China always wants to push U.S. military vessels and aircraft farther away from its shoreline. China has not clarified exactly what it claims, but judging from its actions and official maps, it could be claiming virtually the entire sea as "historic waters." Freedom of navigation does not apply to such areas. Moreover, China now appears to be arguing that foreign military vessels or aircraft transiting its 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone cannot engage in espionage. China points to several clauses in the 1982 Law of the Sea Treaty to try and support its argument. Although China has ratified the treaty, the United States has not.

Beijing wants to modernize its navy to back up its claims. Last April it carried out mid-flight refueling of fighter jets, thus enhancing its ability to project power over the South China Sea. These converging trends are bound to heighten tensions in the South China Sea. Indeed, some analysts believe the main focus of theater missile defense is China, not the officially stated North Korea.

At the Wednesday meeting, China needs to specify what it claims, where and why, both in terms of extent, and specifically in regards to freedom of navigation and overflight. The United States needs to make clear what it does, and does not recognize regarding these claims and their jurisdictional content. If they cannot agree, which is likely, then they should try at least to agree on a "code of conduct" governing similar flights or naval maneuvers and the handling of any incidents stemming from them.

Mark Valencia can be reached at 808-944-7247 or valencim@eastwestcenter.org

This is an East-West Wire, copyright East-West Center