Arun Swamy: POWELL TREADS WATER IN SOUTH ASIA, STILL MAKES WAVES

Date: 07-31-2002

HONOLULU -- U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's weekend visit to South Asia showed that the United States is still able to command the attention of India and Pakistan even though it has little direct influence over the behavior of either, an East-West Center specialist on the region said.

Neither Powell nor other observers expected his stop to produce a breakthrough in the tense standoff between the region's nuclear-armed rivals, according to Arun Swamy. Surprisingly, however, Powell did make news. By announcing that Kashmir was on the "international agenda," calling for international observers during planned October elections in Indian Kashmir, and declaring in Pakistan that he hoped these elections would open the way for peace, "Powell indicated an evolving U.S. position that neither India nor Pakistan likes," Swamy said.

"Powell's comments put both on notice that the state elections in Kashmir need to be free both of electoral malpractice by the Indians and disruption by Pakistan-supported militants," Swamy said. "If they are, that fact will become part of the background of any future discussions on Kashmir. If they are not, the potential for a violent conflict remains."

Powell said he made the South Asia stop to ensure that the situation did not deteriorate, at least before October, when elections are also due in Pakistan's parliament.

India has indicated that it would use the level of militant activity during the Kashmir elections as an indicator of Pakistan's commitment to reduce tensions. Powell's meetings, Swamy noted, produced three views on whether militant infiltration from Pakistan into Indian Kashmir has been reduced: while Pakistan claimed it has stopped completely, Powell said there was significant reduction and India claimed only a marginal change.

It is unclear what will follow if all goes well in October, Swamy said. At present it appears that Kashmiri separatist groups will boycott the Jammu and Kashmir elections despite efforts by India, and reportedly the United States as well, to get these groups to participate. Powell has indicated that he hopes a dialogue between India and Pakistan will follow the two elections, but there is no clear indication from any side as to what such a dialogue would cover. Pakistan continues to expect India to discuss the status of Kashmir, while India clearly has no such intention.

Arun Swamy can be reached at 808-944-7542 or swamya@eastwestcenter.org