HONOLULU (Sept. 21) — The agreement on principles concluding the fourth round of the six-party talks in Beijing is certainly a step forward, according to East-West Center commentators, but tough negotiations lie ahead.
This East-West Wire report features comment and analysis on the agreement by East-West Center President Charles E. Morrison and EWC research fellows Sheila Smith and Christopher McNally.
Charles E. Morrison, president of the East-West Center:
Previous experience with North Korea demonstrates that there will still be a tough negotiating road ahead in interpreting the commitments made, in their sequencing, in their implementation, and in their verification. Nonetheless, the agreement on principles announced in Beijing is an important step forward. This is the first time all parties are on record agreeing to the basic parameters for a successful North Korean re-entry into the nuclear non-proliferation regime. The stakes are high because so long as North Korea builds up fissile material, it encourages nuclear proliferation elsewhere in Northeast Asia and the world and has the potential of becoming a source of supplies for terrorists or creating a "loose nukes" problem in the future.
The statement is a significant achievement for U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. It also demonstrates the validity of the six-party approach pioneered by former Assistant Secretary James Kelly. It is hard to imagine this agreement being reached in an exclusively bilateral negotiation. North Korea's neighbors have a stake in and commitment to the new framework, and will be important to further elaboration and implementation. China's shift from being largely a venue for discussions to becoming a proactive player in fashioning a compromise was a critically important element in the agreement.
Despite this step forward on nuclear proliferation, grievous human rights and humanitarian issues in North Korea remain. These also deserve our utmost attention.
(Charles Morrison can be reached at (808)944-7103 or by email at morrisoc@eastwestcenter.org )
Sheila Smith, research fellow and specialist on Japan and Northeast Asia security issues at the East-West Center:
The joint statement issued at the fourth round of the six-party talks marked a new phase of multilateral security cooperation in the region. This round of talks produced what many thought impossible -- a clear-cut commitment by North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
The principles laid out in the agreement reflect a common effort to meet the stated concerns of Pyongyang. A consensus has been reached on the shared goal of the six parties, suggesting the promise of concrete and demonstrable movement in the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea's neighbors have a strong interest in a successful outcome, and their support for the six-party framework was evident in this last round. China's active efforts to foster a consensus and to keep Pyongyang at the table were highly praised by all participants. Japan, too, announced it would begin again working-level bilateral talks with Pyongyang as early as possible, with the ultimate aim of normalizing their diplomatic relationship.
Ahead are difficult issues, issues such as the sequencing of cooperation with International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and energy assistance, the resolution of difficult bilateral issues such as abductees and human rights. But for now, the "principles" have been laid out, and a six-party commitment made to moving forward.
This is more momentum than we have ever seen before, but caution is in order. No sooner had the joint statement been issued than Pyongyang stated it would not move forward with its promise to denuclearize unless it got its civilian nuclear program first. Only time will tell whether Pyongyang is capable of acting in concert with its neighbors, and how long it will take to translate its new commitment into action.
(Sheila Smith can be reached at (808)944-7427 or by email at smiths@eastwestcenter.org )
Christopher McNally, research fellow and China specialist at the East-West Center:
The agreement signed on North Korea’s nuclear program is preliminary and leaves much to be desired. Indeed, it is more a statement of common principles than a detailed agreement. Already the wrangling over its implementation is beginning. Just hours after reaching the Chinese-sponsored agreement North Korea announced that the “the U.S. should not even dream” that Pyongyang would dismantle its nuclear weapons before it receives a new light-water reactor, calling some of the core tenets of the agreement into doubt.
Despite these problems, the reaching of this agreement after three rounds of often arduous talks is a major success for China’s diplomatic efforts. China basically forced the draft of the agreement onto both North Korea and the United States, pulling them away from their polarized positioning in what seemed an almost impossible situation. No wonder the China Daily characterized the reaching of the agreement as “a major move towards peaceful settlement of a potential firestorm in East Asia.”
For now the agreement provides a way to forestall outright confrontation between the United States and North Korea, a key Chinese objective. It will also allow China to remain the convener of future sessions to resolve problematic issues, especially how the agreement will ultimately be implemented. More discussions will be necessary, and these are all likely to be held in Beijing. In this manner, China will host one of the first effective venues for discussing security in Northeast Asia, bringing all salient players to the same table. As the agreement states: “The six parties agreed to explore ways and means for promoting security cooperation in Northeast Asia.”
Clearly, China has scored a major diplomatic success.
(Christopher McNally can be reached at (808)944-7239 or by email at mcnallyc@eastwestcenter.org )