ADB President: Domestic Demand Greatest Growth Challenge for Asia’s Developing Countries
(HONOLULU
(Nov. 9, 2011) -- The president of the Asian Development Bank said
today that the greatest challenge for Asia's developing
countries to strengthen regional and global economies is to
realign their "sources of growth toward more domestic and regional
demand."
"This will help keep the region's economies
strong while providing opportunities for other regions of the world,"
said Haruhiko Kuroda, speaking at an event co-sponsored by the East-West
Center and held in conjunction with the APEC 2011 Leaders Week. "It
will also contribute to the orderly resolution of global imbalances."
Kuroda gave the keynote luncheon address at the Asia-Pacific Business Symposium,
co-sponsored by the EWC and Pacific Basin Economic Council with support
from the APEC 2011 Hawaii Host Committee. Leaders of the 21 economies
that belong to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) are
gathering in Honolulu, Hawaii, this week.
Asia's
developing countries account for less than one-third of global GDP but
contribute more than half of global economic growth, Kuroda said. The
region's GDP grew 9 percent last year, and the ADB forecasts a
growth of 7.5 percent in both 2011 and 2012.
The
biggest risk for the region's growth is potential
spillovers "should Europe hit a financial tripwire or the US
recovery stagnate," he said. "It is therefore critical for Asia to
rebalance its sources of economic growth by generating more domestic and
regional demand, without undermining the benefits of its earlier
successful export strategy."
Kuroda emphasized that this
did not mean reducing "Factory Asia's supply of products to advanced
economies. Rather, it means reducing reliance on external demand as
growth generator" and increasing imports from trading partners. "With
its significant savings, Asia can drive and sustain growth through
investment -- in physical, environmental and social assets and through
consumption."
He said the potential for profitable
infrastructure investments "is enormous." An ADB study estimates that
developing Asia needs $8 trillion in infrastructure investment through
2020. "Carefully constructed multi-stakeholder public-private
partnerships can help supply these enormous investment demands while
creating jobs and reducing poverty," he said.
Kuroda named other challenges in developing Asia including:
-- Ensuring that infrastructure investment helps narrow the urban/rural
divide. "Bringing market access closer to rural or isolated regions
will ignite untapped production and latent demand," he said.
-- Emergence of a large, rapidly growing urban middle class. Kuroda
said this will hinge on the "dynamism of Asian enterprises,"
especially small and medium-sized enterprises, or SMEs, “because most
Asian workers depend on SMEs for their livelihoods." In manufacturing
the share of employment in SMEs ranges from about 50 percent to 90
percent, he said, and trade finance must be available to
support such enterprises.
-- Economic and social
consequences of climate change. An ADB study focusing on Southeast Asia
estimates that if nothing is done to tackle this problem, the total
cost of climate change for Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand
and Vietnam could reach 6.7 percent of their combined GDP each year by
2100. "Sustainability cannot be achieved unless the world moves onto a
low-carbon and climate-resilient 'green' development path that embraces
both mitigation and adaptation," Kuroda said.
He
said Hawaii was a symbolic place to hold the
APEC meeting: "Hawaii sits in the geographic center of the
Asia-Pacific region, connecting people, places and economic
opportunities. It represents a bridge between North America and Asia,
and between Asia and Latin America -- a region with huge potential for
closer economic ties with Asia. And this is what APEC is all about --
strengthening and expanding the economic relationships between the 21
APEC members during this 21st century."