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Title: The optimal mix of electricity-generating sources for Japan in the year 2000 : a multiple-criteria decision making analysis 
Author: Amagai, Hisashi
Date: 1989
Abstract: This dissertation describes an alternative approach for determining the optimal mix of Japan's electric power sources through a multiple-criteria decision making (MCDM) analysis. The present priority of Japan's electric power industry is to attain the optimal mix of power sources. In determining such an optimal mix, the electric power industry recognizes the significance of an approach that considers security of power supply in the future and environmental aspects, but the emphasis has still been placed on economic aspects only. Most of the fuels used for generating power in Japan are imported from overseas. In other words, future power supply depends heavily on overseas sources. Emissions from the thermal power plants have caused the "greenhouse effect" and "acid rain." Recently, the agitation against nuclear power development is accelerating throughout the country, concerning the safety of nuclear power plants. Therefore, the electric power industry should consider security of power supply (strategic aspect), emission problems (environmental aspect), and public opinion on safety (social aspect) in addition to the economic aspects in determining the optimal mix of power sources. In this study, a multi-objective programming model is developed for the determination of optimal mix of power sources with special attention to economic, technological, and institutional conditions. Since it is difficult to predict future conditions due to uncertainties such as changes in technology, natural disasters, changes in values, and other unforeseeable changes, scenario analysis is utilized in this study. As this problem belongs to the domain of public decision making which contains a wide range of interest groups (decision makers), it is desirable that the optimal solutions satisfy the conditions of equity as well as efficiency. In this study, the Rawlsian equity criterion and the utilitarian equity criterion are considered to attain the optimal mix of power sources. Empirical results determined by the MCDM analysis are compared with the results of two major studies on electric power sources - one by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, and the other by the Japanese Institute of Energy Economics.
Description: Typescript. Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1989. Includes bibliographical references. Microfiche. xii, 147 leaves, bound ill. 29 cm
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10125/9212
Rights: All UHM dissertations and theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission from the copyright owner.

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