Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10125/50079

The Anchor and Adjustment Bandwidthmodel: Exploring Cognitive Biases in Simulated Forecast Series

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Title: The Anchor and Adjustment Bandwidthmodel: Exploring Cognitive Biases in Simulated Forecast Series
Authors: Knöll, Florian
Roßbach, David
Keywords: Service Analytics
Anchoring and Adjustment, Corporate Cash Flow, Cognitive Bias, Forecasting Process, Forecast Support System
Issue Date: 03 Jan 2018
Abstract: In today's enterprises, forecasts of time series are a crucial part of the planning process. Human experts often create these forecasts - for example, in cash flow or sales forecasting. The human participation can lead to forecasts being influenced by cognitive biases like anchoring and adjustment. This study aims to detect anchoring and adjustment effects in forecasting processes based on the newly developed Bandwidthmodel. We show that the Bandwidthmodel has higher explanatory power with regard to the relation between anchoring and adjustment effects and forecast errors in comparison to other models based on synthetic forecast series. These series allow the generation of specific pattern of anchoring and adjustment effects. The results suggest that usage of the Bandwidthmodel can improve the accuracy of forecasts and is beneficially for a forecast support system.
Pages/Duration: 10 pages
URI/DOI: http://hdl.handle.net/10125/50079
ISBN: 978-0-9981331-1-9
Rights: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Appears in Collections:Service Analytics


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