Estimation of the J-curve in China

Date
2004
Authors
Ahmad, Jaleel
Yang, Jing
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Honolulu: East-West Center
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Abstract
This paper investigates whether a J-curve can be detected in the time series data on China's bilateral trade with the G-7 countries. It utilizes cointegration and causality tests to ascertain the long-run relatedness, and the short-run dynamics, between the real exchange rate, national income, and the trade balance. There is some evidence that a real depreciation eventually improves the trade balance with some countries. But there is no indication of a negative short-run response which characterizes the J-curve.
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Foreign exchange market - China - Econometric models, Foreign exchange - China - Econometric models
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22 pages
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