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Role of Urbanization, Land-Use Diversity, and Livestock Intensification in Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases

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Title: Role of Urbanization, Land-Use Diversity, and Livestock Intensification in Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases
Authors: Saksena, Sumeet
Fox, Jefferson
Epprecht, Michael
Tran, Chinh C.
Castrence, Miguel
show 6 moreNong, Duong
Spencer, James
Nguyen, Lam
Finucane, Melissa
Vien, Tran Duc
Wilcox, Bruce

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LC Subject Headings: Urbanization
Land use, Urban
Zoonoses
Avian influenza - Risk factors
Issue Date: Oct 2014
Publisher: Honolulu, HI: East-West Center
Series/Report no.: East-West Center working papers. Environment, population and health series ; no. 6
Abstract: Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) continue to significantly threaten human and animal health. While there has been some progress in identifying underlying proximal driving forces and causal mechanisms of disease emergence, the role of distal factors is most poorly understood. This article focuses on analyzing the statistical association between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and urbanization, land-use diversity and poultry intensification. A special form of the urban transition--peri-urbanization--was hypothesized as being associated with 'hot-spots' of disease emergence. Novel metrics were used to characterize these distal risk factors. Our models, which combined these newly proposed risk factors with previously known natural and human risk factors, had a far higher predictive performance compared to published models for the first two epidemiological waves in Viet Nam. We found that when relevant risk factors are taken into account, urbanization is generally not a significant independent risk factor. However, urbanization spatially combines other risk factors leading to peri-urban places being the most likely 'hot-spots'. The work highlights that peri-urban areas have highest levels of chicken density, duck and geese flock size diversity, fraction of land under rice, fraction of land under aquaculture compared to rural and urban areas. Land-use diversity, which has previously never been studied in the context of HPAI H5N1, was found to be a significant risk factor. Places where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production are collocated were found to be at greater risk.
Description: For more about the East-West Center, see http://www.eastwestcenter.org/
Pages/Duration: 30 p.
URI/DOI: http://hdl.handle.net/10125/35845
Appears in Collections:Environment, Population, and Health [Working Papers]



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