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Title: WRRCTR No.133 Bayes-Markov Analysis for Rain-Catchment Cisterns 
Author: Fok, Yu-Si; Fong, Ronald H.L.; Murabayashi, Edwin T.; Lo, Andrew; Hung, Jack
Date: 1980-03
Publisher: Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Citation: Fok YS, Fong RHL, Hung J, Murabayashi ET, Lo A. 1980. Bayes-Markov analysis for rain-catchment cisterns. Honolulu (HI): Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa. WRRC technical report, 133.
Abstract: In many parts of the world, public water-supply systems have shown signs of an inability to adequately service increasing demand. As a result, water shortages have occurred and moratoriums on new development areas have been imposed. And because of recurrent droughts and the rapid acceleration of urban development in recent years, the rain-catchment system and its cost effectiveness are now regaining the attention of researchers and planners as a "new" and important alternative water supply. Rainfall, catchment area, storage capacity of the cistern, and water demand are the four main elements considered in the design, operation and management of a cistern system. Expected weekly rainfall is the main uncontrollable element of concern to the cistern owner; therefore, to meet this problem, expected weekly rainfall probabilities were first simulated by the Bayesian analysis. Then the sequential property contained in the 25-yr rainfall record was utilized to generate the likelihood probability function by using the lag 1 Markov sequential analysis. The Bayes-Markov analysis was subsequently applied to obtain the weekly rainfall probabilities. As a result of these analyses, the Bayes-Markov probabilistic approach for weekly rainfall simulation has shown its usefulness. Design and operational methodologies are also presented in the report.
Series/Report No.: WRRC Technical Report
Sponsorship: Office of Water Research and Technology U.S. Dept. of the Interior Grant/Contract No. A-073-HI· 14-34-0001-8013, 9013
Pages/Duration: viii + 100 pages
Keywords: cisterns, rainfall, water demand, storage capacity, water management (applied), dynamic programming, water conservation, droughts, rainfall data, Hawaii, Bayes-Markov analysis, rainfall probabilities, risk analysis, resign methodology, operational methodology, Pauoa Flats rain gage, Oahu
LC Subject Headings: Cisterns -- Mathematical models.
Rain and rainfall -- Hawaii -- Oahu.
Rain-water (Water-supply) -- Mathematical models.

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