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The Trans-Pacific partnership and Asia-Pacific integration : a quantitative assessment

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Title: The Trans-Pacific partnership and Asia-Pacific integration : a quantitative assessment
Authors: Petri, Peter A.
Plummer, Michael G.
Zhai, Fan
LC Subject Headings: Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (2006)
Asia - Economic integration
Pacific Area - Foreign economic relations - Asia
Asia - Foreign economic relations - Pacific Area
Free trade - Pacific Area
show 1 moreFree trade - Asia
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Issue Date: 24 Oct 2011
Publisher: Honolulu : East-West Center
Series/Report no.: East-West Center working papers. Economics series ; no. 119
Abstract: Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
Description: For more about the East-West Center, see
Pages/Duration: 72 p.
Appears in Collections:Economics [Working Papers]

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