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The future of South Korea : alternative scenarios for 2030

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Item Summary

Title: The future of South Korea : alternative scenarios for 2030
Authors: Son, Hyeonju
Keywords: alternative futures scenarios
preferred futures
Issue Date: Dec 2012
Publisher: [Honolulu] : [University of Hawaii at Manoa], [December 2012]
Abstract: This dissertation is about five alternative future scenarios of Korea in the year 2030 to increase our understanding of the long-term future of Korea. By adopting Jim Dator's Alternative Futures Scenarios method, the five alternative future scenarios include four alternative scenario archetypes (growth, discipline, collapse, and transformation) and a preferred future scenario. This research explores the key question of 'what will Korea look like in the year 2030'. After reviewing Korea's history and current situation and existing forecasts of the futures of Korea, we bounded the uncertainty about the future through the five alternative scenarios. First, The Republic of Samsung scenario is an official view of the Korean future. It represents the continuation of the existing economic development. Korean society is following the predictable developmental trajectory from a developmental state society to corporate society. Second, in the Great Han River Flood in Warmer Korea Scenario, Korea encounters catastrophic weather events, contributed by global warming. This scenario can be seen as a degrowth society that is a natural outcome of a destructive river flood. Third, the A Big Global Family Phenomenon scenario challenges the consumption oriented attitude and materialistic nature. It originates from human oriented attitude and social justice. This scenario has charted out the emergence of cosmopolitan values in the context of trends moved toward rapid globalization, dominance of multilevel governance, and growth of global citizenship. Fourth, the Age of Biotechnology scenario is an attempt to realize the post-modern desire for progress through biotechnology. In this scenario Korea is becoming a bio-society due to the successful commercialization of biotechnological products. Fifth, the Peaceful Unification as a Dream Come True scenario is a preferred future. Its vision is the peaceful unification and an equitable and sustainable society. It covers a situation in which two Koreans develop a strong support for peaceful unification. Also it is based on a sustainable economy to secure economic growth and to focus on the quality of life. By developing five alternative scenarios, this dissertation addresses the implications of five alternative scenarios for Korea's future and suggests strategic action plans to move toward a preferred future.
Description: Ph.D. University of Hawaii at Manoa 2012.
Includes bibliographical references.
Appears in Collections:Ph.D. - Political Science

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