HONOLULU (May 19) -- A growing discontent within Japan over China's handling of recent anti-Japanese protests will complicate government efforts to craft a new direction for the bilateral relationship, says an East-West Center Japan specialist.
"The question for the future is whether or not internal challenges within each country bode well for a healthy relationship," said Sheila Smith, a research fellow in Japanese foreign policy and regional security. "The real test will be whether or not the two societies can live alongside each other in comfort as Chinese become more wealthy and as Japanese become more outspoken."
Already public opinion in Japan is indicating in unprecedented ways how tough this may be. In a nationwide poll conducted last weekend, an overwhelming majority of Japanese -- 92% -- said they are unhappy with the way Beijing dealt with last month's protests over Japan's wartime past.
The poll conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun was published as the leadership of Japan and China attempts to mend badly strained relations following the violent demonstrations that damaged Japanese diplomatic missions and businesses in several cities across China. Chinese protests were ignited by Tokyo's approval of a history textbook that critics said downplayed Japan's World War II abuses.
In the past, despite the often difficult relationship between the two governments, Smith said many Japanese identified more easily with their Asian neighbor than with their ally, the United States. "But the mood has shifted palpably," she noted. "The Japanese government has commented publicly for some time on the problems with the relationship, but today Japanese public commentators are laying the blame for the inability of the two countries to move beyond history on the Chinese government."
Since the demonstrations, she said, there is a broader impatience among the Japanese public with the Chinese position that Japan has not significantly apologized for its wartime aggression. "Japan as a society seems much less susceptible to China's diplomatic demands on delicate political issues, such as the Prime Minister's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, even though there are mixed views within Japan on this issue," she said.
The Yomiuri poll indicates further complications may be ahead for policymakers. Some 74 percent of those surveyed said they are worried the Chinese government is incapable of hosting a trouble-free 2008 Olympic World Games.
"This sentiment plays to the larger issues of international leadership," says Smith, with the public in both countries emboldened to speak up about international events. In China and South Korea, the campaign to develop an Internet petition opposing Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council has also caught many in Japan by surprise.
The impact of these growing sensitivities goes well beyond the bilateral relationship. "What strikes me is these volatile sensitivities are being channeled into the debate over the international role of Japan and China," said Smith. "By raising questions about the capacity of each country to demonstrate its qualifications as a respectable player in international affairs, these public critiques are playing to the wider audience of international public opinion. This makes the task of repairing this relationship all the more important for government leaders, yet all the more difficult."
Sheila Smith can be reached at (808) 944-7427 or smiths@eastwestcenter.org