Both U.S. Candidates Likely to Hold Steady Course on Asia

Charles E. Morrison

HONOLULU (Oct. 6) – Despite the historic and perhaps transformative nature of this year's presidential election in the United States, major changes in U.S. foreign policy in Asia, at least in the near term, are less likely, the president of the East-West Center said in a recent address.

"This is an election about change," said Center President Charles E. Morrison. "But I'm not sure, particularly in the early years, that there will be as much foreign policy change as some expect."

Morrison spoke at the annual meeting of the Friends of the East-West Center on Oct. 2.

The consensus around basic foreign policy values and the pressure of dealing with the paramount issue of the economy – as well as the difficulties of getting congressional support – suggest both Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama will hold a relatively steady course on the basics of U.S. foreign policy, Morrison said. "Policy is a consequence of old continuities and new circumstances," he said.

The many issues of the "greater Middle East," he said, will continue to crowd out attention to other regions, including much of Asia and the Pacific.

But while basic policies may largely remain in place, he said, the "atmosphere" surrounding America's place on the world stage may change substantially.

"There will be one clear change: the atmosphere abroad will be more positive. Right now, the U.S. standing in the world is low. Either president would start with a honeymoon on the domestic side and excitement on the international side."

One reason for such excitement, Morrison said, is that in foreign eyes, the U.S. presidential campaign has gone on a long time, and the world is awaiting new U.S. leadership. Moreover, both candidates are regarded as true internationalists, with a genuine interest in foreign policy.

Obama, he noted, was born and raised in mid-Pacific Hawaii, spent some childhood years in Indonesia, and serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  McCain endured the experience of being held for years in a Hanoi prisoner-of-war camp, an experience that could have left him bitter but instead gave him an enduring interest in strengthening good relations with Vietnam and the other nations of Asia. He also serves as the senior Republican of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Most individual elements of U.S. policy toward Asian countries have strong support, Morrison noted. Current U.S. policy toward China, for instance, has sought to work with China to help it become a "responsible stakeholder" in global affairs. This is a "sensible approach," he said. "In fact," he said, "there is no other realistic policy with respect to China."

The previous Democratic and current Republican administrations have gone a long way toward building bridges with India, he said, a non-partisan approach "which should continue under the next president, because it is rooted in common values, complementary strategic interests, and strong ethnic and business ties."

There is always a temptation in a new administration to do something differently from its predecessor, Morrison noted. 

If the next administration wishes to make change in the Asia Pacific region, he said, it might consider:

  • Articulating a clearer and broader vision about the United States and its partnership with Asia and the Pacific.  
  • Paying closer and more serious attention to multilateral organizations, and providing leadership, not simply at times of meetings.
  • Strengthening the support base for a constructive Asia Pacific policy in the Congress and local communities.

There will be an opportunity to focus on those and other issues when the United States hosts the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in 2011, Morrison noted. But he argued that developing a clear Asia Pacific policy vision "should not wait until 2011" and represents an opportunity for a new president.

"The world of the coming century will be a global world with Asia Pacific at its core," Morrison said. "We need to be repositioning the United States to take into account this coming reality while continuing to provide regional and global leadership.

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The EAST-WEST CENTER is an education and research organization established by the U.S. Congress in 1960 to strengthen relations and understanding among the peoples and nations of Asia, the Pacific, and the United States. The Center contributes to a peaceful, prosperous and just Asia Pacific community by serving as a vigorous hub for cooperative research, education and dialogue on critical issues of common concern to the Asia Pacific region and the United States. Funding for the Center comes from the U.S. government, with additional support provided by private agencies, individuals, foundations, corporations and the governments of the region.

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