Victor Cha: Sanctions Regime Has Hurt North Korea and Influenced Recent 'Charm Offensive'

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Nov. 16) – The sanctions set forth by the United Nations Security Council following North Korea's nuclear test on May 25 have "taken a bite out of North Korea," which is why Pyongyang wants to return to the Six-Party Talks, Dr. Victor Cha said in a recent interview with the U.S. Asia Pacific Council's Washington Report. Dr. Cha, currently senior advisor and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and a professor at Georgetown University, served as U.S. deputy head of delegation to the Six-Party Talks during the Bush administration.

(Click here to download the November 2009 issue of Washington Report and the full interview with Dr. Cha.)

"A lot of diplomatic theater frequently takes place. But often there are very simple answers that explain North Korean behavior," Cha said. "First, North Korea pursues nuclear weapons development because it desires to be a nuclear weapons state. And second, the reason why Pyongyang wants to return to the to the Six-Party Talks – after pushing off the Obama administration from the very beginning of its term – is because the sanctions that were implemented following its nuclear test are starting to hurt."

In his interview with Washington Report, Cha delved into a number of issues relevant to the North Korean problem, including:

Purpose of sanctions:

Some analysts have argued that economic sanctions in and of themselves will not cause North Korea to denuclearize. Cha did not disagree, but he pointed out that the sanctions serve two important purposes. First, they punish North Korea for its behavior, and second, they counter North Korea's proliferation efforts. And the real threat that North Korea poses to U.S. core security interests, Cha said, is the danger of proliferation, whether it be proliferation of scientists, fissile material, or weapons design.

"We know how to deter North Korea from invading the South and we know how to punish Pyongyang with U.N. sanctions when it conducts missile tests and nuclear tests. But we still are not very good at deterring North Korea from proliferation or from testing missiles," Cha said. He proposed that this problem "has to be one of the priorities for the Obama administration."

The proliferation threat is real, Cha said, as was evidenced by North Korea's sales of nuclear technology to Syria. Regardless of the outcome of current diplomatic initiatives, he said, "it is important to continue counter-proliferation sanctions."

Importance of negotiations:

"There needs to be some sort of negotiations to get at the denuclearization aspect, and that requires some incentives," Cha said. He noted that, going back to the Clinton and Bush administrations and including the Obama White House, Washington has offered basically the same bargain to Pyongyang: "Give up your nuclear weapons and you potentially will get a peace treaty formally ending the Korean War, normalization of relations with the United States and Japan, energy assistance, economic assistance, and a place at the table as a normal member of the international community."

Role of the North Korean military:

Cha noted that the military has become more significant under Kim Jong-Il as a direct result of his "military first" policy. But he took a slightly different view from other experts who regard the military as an important political force now and into the future. "The military will play an important role [in a post-Kim era]," Cha said, "but it will be important in the sense that [it] will serve whatever political actor is in control."

'Thaw' in North-South relations:

South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak has not necessarily embraced Pyongyang's recent "charm offensive" with "wide-eyed optimism," according to Cha. Rather, President Lee's "grand bargain" sets forth very clear quid pro quos for progress in North-South economic relations. "That is a position with which the United States is very comfortable," Cha said.

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