HONOLULU (June 9) -- While American security specialists at the East-West Center said a U.S. plan to withdraw 12,500 troops from South Korea is a long-overdue strategic move, a South Korean analyst is worried that his country is not ready militarily, politically or economically for such a change.
But all three agreed that how fast the United States proceeds will be as much a political decision as a military one.
Choong Nam Kim, a specialist on U.S.-Korea relations, said South Korea embarked on a 10-year force improvement plan last year to be completed in 2013. Koreans expect a U.S. pullout to occur in phases, not to be finished by 2005-2006 as the United States plans. And while the United States plans to spend $11 billion for military upgrades on the peninsula, Kim said that it might require $60-$100 billion "to fill the gap. I'm not sure our struggling economy can spend that much."
Kim, who served as an assistant for political affairs and public relations to three South Korean presidents before joining the East-West Center, emphasized that U.S. military officers in South Korea command both American and Korean troops, different from command structures in Germany and Japan, which also host U.S. military forces. "South Korean
forces don't have their own defense policy or war plan or related military preparedness."
Sheila Smith, a specialist on U.S.-Japan security relations, said the proposed pullout of approximately a third of all U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula was no surprise for security analysts and still leaves about 25,000 American service members on the ground, the number determined necessary in case conflict breaks out.
She said both U.S. and South Korean military analysts agree that the initial hours of any conflict would not focus on troops along the Korean DMZ but on Seoul, south of the demilitarized zone. The troop withdrawal "makes sense and in my opinion doesn't suggest any less interest in protecting South Korea.
"U.S. negotiations on reduction and realignment have been quiet conversations with allies for the past year and are just hitting the press now. The specifics, such as the number of troops and the location of new deployments, will set off political debate within these societies, however. We should expect heated debate over the implementation of these changes."
Richard Baker, who focuses on U.S. foreign policy, agreed that the U.S. proposal was "quite sound and overdue. It also basically calls the bluff of those in Korea who have been calling for the United States to go away. This hopefully will trigger a sound reconsideration in Korea of the country's strategic interest. The U.S. alliance has for too long become a target of rhetorical cheap shots because nobody thought Americans would go away.
"On the other hand, the Korean reaction to the American announcement understandably reflects the genuine insecurity and uncertainties still felt by the Korean government and people whose lives are literally hostage to 20,000 artillery tubes targeted on Seoul. This is one reason why the American troop disposition has been virtually frozen since 1953."
Kim said some Koreans believe the U.S. withdrawal plan was a unilateral decision more than one based on consultation with South Korea. He added that anti-U.S. media reports over the last five years and the ruling party's push for foreign and defense policies that are independent of U.S. policy have hurt U.S.-Korea relations.
Regarding the larger reconfiguration of U.S. troops in the region, Smith said the proposal to move 14,000 U.S. Marines in Okinawa to Hokkaido in northern Japan also makes sense. U.S. troops will be able to participate in live-fire exercises there, something they can't do on Okinawa, where there has been building pressure to reduce the number of Marines since the 1995 rape of a Japanese girl by three U.S. service members. Smith said, however, that sending the Marines to Hokkaido means the Pentagon is not ready to take them out of the region yet.
The pace of U.S. force realignment, Smith said, "will depend on how quickly (Japanese and Korean) governments can satisfy their constituents that these changes are necessary."
Richard Baker can be reached at 808-944-7371 or bakerr@eastwestcenter.org
Choong Nam Kim can be reached at 808-944-7372 or kimcn@eastwestcenter.org
Sheila Smith can be reached at 808-944-7427 or smiths@eastwestcenter.org